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THE ROLE OF FISCAL RULES IN MANAGING BUDGET RISKS

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Abstract

This article examines the structural significance and operational role of fiscal rules in mitigating and managing budget risks within contemporary public finance systems. In the face of macroeconomic volatility, demographic shifts, and unexpected economic shocks, maintaining fiscal sustainability requires robust institutional frameworks. The study analyzes how numerically and qualitatively defined constraints on fiscal aggregates-such as public debt, budget deficits, expenditures, and revenues-serve as mechanisms to curb procyclical spending and ensure long-term fiscal discipline. Furthermore, the paper evaluates the balance between rigidity and flexibility in fiscal rules, exploring the function of well-defined escape clauses and independent fiscal councils in strengthening budget risk management strategies.

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References

1.Kopits, G., & Symansky, S. A. (1998). Fiscal policy rules. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

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3.Alesina, A., & Perotti, R. (1995). The political economy of budget deficits. IMF Staff Papers, 42(1), 1-31.

4.Debrun, X., Moulin, L., Turrini, A., Ayuso-i-Casals, J., & Kumar, M. S. (2008). Tied to the mast? National fiscal rules in the European Union. Economic Policy, 23(54), 298-362.

5.International Monetary Fund. (2022). Fiscal monitor: Helping people meet commitment while maintaining fiscal discipline. Washington, DC: IMF Publications.

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